Glioma-patients get regular neuroradiological MRI-follow-ups to evaluate the tumor-progression-status. In this study it was investigated whether it is possible to predict tumor progression within the next follow-up period, from progression on a longer time-scale. The T1c- and FLAIR-images of two times 20 patients were investigated; one group having stable-disease at two subsequent follow-ups (ST-ST), the second group showed stable-disease during the first but progressive-disease during the second follow-up (ST-PR). By applying machine-learning (random-forests) on textural MRI-information, short-term progression could be predicted with an accuracy of 77.5%. This novel type of information can have an impact on improved personalized-treatment of glioma-patients.
Patients - We conducted a prospective cohort-study of 40 patients with histologically confirmed high-grade gliomas, according to their neuroradiological follow-up status. One group of 20 patients (stable-stable group (ST-ST)) who exhibited stable disease according to the RANO-criteria and advanced neuro- imaging criteria (MR-perfusion and MR-spectroscopy) during at least 2 follow-up MR-examinations (conducted at approximately 3‑monthly intervals) formed the reference group. The other group, also comprising of 20 patients, showed stable-disease during the first MRI-follow-up but during the second follow-up, met the RANO and advanced neuro-imaging criteria for progressive-disease (stable-progression group (ST-PR)).
Image Selection and Contouring - Manually drawn regions on FLAIR- and post-contrast T1,c were defined that enclosed the complete abnormal tumor-affected region, as compared to the normal-appearing opposite hemisphere (see example images in Figure 1). From the original FLAIR- and post-contrast T1,c (ORIG), the following textural maps were computed over a 5 x 5 pixel-interval: (a.) local moving averaged maps (AVER), (b.) the local STandard DEViation (STDE) maps, (c.) local SKEWness maps (SKEW); (d.) local variance maps (VARI); (e.) local KURTosis maps (KURT); (f.) local VAriance-in-VAriance (VAVA) maps. The mean values over the contoured regions of the 2 times 7 maps were taken as features for the classification. Their numerical products were taken as 7 additional features, resulting in a total of 21 features. Additionally the patient age, abnormal T1c-volume, abnormal FLAIR-volume and T1c-volume-to-FLAIR-volume we used in the analysis and machine learning algorithm (random forests [1]). Results were confirmed by leave-one-out cross-validation to test for overfitting. In Figure 2 an example of the used computed texture-maps derived from T1c in this study is shown.
Hypothesis - It is possible to predict tumor-progression occurring within the follow-up period (in this study effectively 3.1 months) from more prolonged tumor-progression occurring using T1c-, FLAIR- derived texture-parameters and machine-learning.
Taking image features from FLAIR only, or from T1c only, the RF-classification based distinction between the ST-ST from the ST-PR group could be distinguished with an out-of-box (OOB) classification error of 32.5% for FLAIR and also 32.5% for the T1c-images. The performance of the classifiers can substantially be improved by basing the classification on the FLAIR and T1c product-features only; the OOB classification error drops to 25%.
To illustrate the numerical differences in the product-features between the ST-ST and the ST-PR group, Figure 3 shows the box-plots of the product features extracted from both T1c, FLAIR images (e.g. the tumors' VARI(T1c) x VARI(FLAIR) is displayed in the top-left box-plot of Figure 3). For example, the product (raw) feature, which measures the tumors' average product-brightness of both T1c-, and FLAIR-images, differs highly significantly with a p=0.0004 (Wilcoxon sum rank test) between the groups. Significant differences are also obtained for the variance, standard deviation and variance-in-variance product features. No significant difference were obtained in the skewness and kurtosis textural product-features.
Best classification performance to distinguish ST-ST from ST-PR was obtained with a combination of features from FLAIR, T1c and product features, and yielded a classification OOB-error of just 22.5%, and a specificity of 82.3% (95% CI [55.8%,95.3%]) and a sensitivity of 73.9% (95% CI [51.3%,88.9%]). Figure 4 shows the confusion matrix of this classifier.
A very elegant feature of Breimans' random-forests algorithm [1] is, that it also indicates the relative importance of the used features. The most important features were: 1. the product variance, 2. product standard deviation, 3. the product mean values. The least important features were the T1c and FLAIR derived tumor volumes. A full overview of all relative-importance of all RF-included features can be found in Figure 5.