Pulmonary hypertension has a poor prognosis. Invasive right heart catheter measured mean pulmonary artery pressure (RHC-MPAP) is the gold standard for clinical diagnosis. Here we present a parametric model derived from cardio-pulmonary MRI for the prediction of pulmonary hypertension with a strong correlation with RHC-MPAP and a high diagnostic accuracy. In certain patients, right heart catheterisation may be avoided due to high specificity of this cardio-pulmonary MR model.
2151 MRI scans were identified from the ASPIRE registry. Within this registry there are 1146 incident cases with suspected PH. Of these patients 816 had RHC and MRI within 2 days so were included, giving 408 patients in the derivation and validation cohorts. Cardio-pulmonary MRI derived measures of right ventricular and pulmonary arterial structure and function, particularly right ventricular end systolic volume index, right ventricular ejection fraction, left ventricular end-diastolic volume index, right ventricular mass (and hence ventricular mass index), log10 interventricular septal angle and pulmonary artery diastolic area showed statistically significant correlations with RHC-mPAP and were included in the regression calculation. Scatter plots for each variable against RHC-mPAP were used to assess for a linear relationship, interventricular septal angle and ventricular mass index showed a logarithmic relationship. The result of the regression analysis was:
MPAPmri = -171.769 + (43.517 x log10 interventricular septal angle) + (6.282 x log10 ventricular mass index) + (-0.917 x Average pulmonary artery velocity) + (-0.178 x pulmonary artery relative area change) + (0.007 x Diastolic pulmonary arterial area). (Figure 4)
A threshold of 37 was identified as a diagnostic cut-off as it was 100% specific threshold for PH.
Diagnostic accuracy for Validation cohort.
The accuracy of this model was assessed in the 408 patients in the validation cohort. There was a strong correlation between RHC-mPAP and MR predicted mPAP (r2=0.55 p<0.0001). ROC curve analysis showed an area under the curve of 0.883, the threshold of 37 had 97% specificity and 45% sensitivity (p<0.0001). The accuracy of the model was also assessed after exclusion of patients with MRI evidence of left heart disease, defined by a left atrial volume index of ≥41 (4). There were 238 patients with left atrial volume index of <41, 39 without PH and 199 with PH. Removing the patients with dilated left atrial volumes from the analysis increased the correlation between MR predicted mPAP and RHC measured mPAP (r2=0.6543, p=<0.0001) (figure 1). Bland-Altman analysis showed a tiny bias (-1.0%) and close 95% agreement (upper and lower boundaries of agreement were 45.62% and-47.65%) (figure 2). ROC curve analysis gave an area under the curve of 0.930 (p=<0.0001) (figure 3). Using a threshold of 37, gave a specificity of 100% (95% CI 92-100%) with a sensitivity of 73% (66-78%) (p=<0.0001). Using a threshold of 25 (mirrors the RHC threshold) gave 90% sensitivity (95%CI 86-94%) and 61% specificity (95%CI 47-74%) (p=<0.0001).
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